April-August is the traditional off-season for the paraffin wax market. Even if international oil prices hit new highs, alternative products stearic acid and Fischer-Tropsch waxes are bearish, and it is difficult to save the paraffin wax market with weak demand. At present, the main support for the market is the large increase in export volume and the low domestic inventory.

The export volume of paraffin wax in 2021 hit a new high. From January to April, the export volume reached 273,000 tons, accounting for 54.49% of the total domestic output, an increase of 35.8% year-on-year. That is to say, although the ocean freight has been rising again and it is difficult to find a container, the domestic paraffin wax exports still remain high, so that the domestic paraffin wax market can maintain a balance of supply and demand and keep inventory at a low level.

The price of Fischer-Tropsch wax has risen, the advantage is still obvious

The Fischer-Tropsch wax market, which is still calm today, has seen waves, the price has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of the refined wax market is 5400-5450 yuan/ton. The main reason is that due to the installation of Nanjing Coal, the amount of resources released has been greatly reduced, which has caused resource shortages, and at the same time aroused the psychology of merchants to obtain goods. Therefore, resource shortages have begun to appear and prices have risen. However, due to the large price gap between paraffin wax and Fischer-Tropsch wax, the increase far does not affect its price advantage, so it does not drive the paraffin wax market much.

In summary, although the high price of international crude oil is supported, and the price increase of alternative products is good, it does not drive the paraffin wax market much. Export is the biggest support for the paraffin wax market, which is currently in the off-season of domestic demand. Under the circumstance that domestic demand has not improved, it is expected that prices will remain stable in the near future.